November 16, 2008
The Winning Formula...for the Liberals
Regarding the recently concluded 2008 Presidential Election:
I hope the Republicans, a.k.a. The Stupid Party, realize that very likely from now on, the Democratic Presidential candidate will be non-white. I can't imagine ever again the Democrats allowing another white male to be a serious contender. In a few years they will start looking for the next Obama to introduce and groom for a run in 2016. It's simple: The black man won it for them while the last two white men didn't.
The registered Democratic Party turnout, and the non-white turnout in particular, (the percentage of eligible voters who actually voted) was up this time. And with the way our demographic change is going, the Democrats surely know this will benefit them the most as long as their top candidate is non-white.
Here are some numbers to review, taken from the Pew Research Center Website:
White vote: 43% Obama, 55% McCain.
Hispanic vote: 66% Obama, 32% McCain. (Bush got about 40% in 2004).
Black vote: 95% Obama, 4% McCain. (I hear that the black Republican voter was just added to the endangered species list!)
Obama also won the majority of the registered Independent vote, also a mostly white vote.
More significant is the 18-29 year old vote: 66% Obama, the same as the hispanic vote.
And: 18-29 year old white vote: 54% Obama, 44% McCain, the only white voter age group Obama won., and a 10% reversal from 2004!
This looks like to me the start of an intergenerational split, not surprising when you consider how much more funds our younger generation will likely have to pony up to Uncle Sam, to pay for the retirement costs of the Baby Boom generation, all of whom will be eligible for benefits by 2031 under current law. This split will be a key factor in the USA deathwatch in the coming years.
Meanwhile the Republicans will likely claim they lost this year because they couldn't keep the Hispanic vote at the 2004 level, ignoring again both the loss of the white vote, and the lower white turnout. Will they ever learn? I've come to the conclusion that the one thing the Republicans fear the most, even more than losing elections, is to be seen as the party of white people.
It's the white vote that still splits their vote the most, and therefore should be the easiest to persuade to change sides. If they keep ignoring the white vote, and the Democrats keep running nonwhite Presidential candidates, they likely will find themselves shut out of the White House for a record length of time.
But this leads to another problem: if they do go after the white vote, they should start winning again, but with our current demographic changes the Republicans would eventually become the White party, and the Democrats the Non-white party, all the more likely as the white population of America falls towards 50%. This will make the already bitter Blue state vs. Red state divide much worse, adding a racial angle to the political and geographic one. It will be yet another factor in the deathwatch.
But if they don't go after the white vote, they risk losing the White House for so many years a serious groundswell will grow for a third party, or a new party to replace them, or even serious talk of a Red state secession, again putting a fatal strain on the American political system.
Damned if they do, damned if they don't?
Posted by AndyK at 9:58 PM