November 18, 2008

The Actual Fall: Four Likely Outcomes

Here I will try to explain what I mean by the "fall" of the United States, after a long decline has taken place. Generally I'm referring to the Federal Government and political system. At some point, (again at least 20 years out) it will suffer a crises that will either:

1. Force it to collapse permanently, like the Soviet Union.

2. Survive, but change into something so different (and worse) that it would be unrecognizable from the former version other than in name only.

3. Merge with Canada and Mexico into a greater North American Union.

4. Collapse, but eventually be revived in a far weaker role, more in line with its original role in the 1789-1829 (pre-Jacksonian) period.

The crises that would provide the final blow likely would be economic or political, in the form of a banking/finance crash similar to but worse than our current one, or a disputed Presidential election similar to 2000, or even a terrorist attack or series of assassinations in Washington that removes the leadership. (The other trends I mentioned on Nov. 14th's post are too slow to provide a sudden, fatal crises, but would still be occurring at the time.)

I also give any of the four outcomes listed above an equal chance versus the others to happen, there isn't one in particular that I think is most likely at this point in time. All four would almost certainly be accompanied by an economic Depression similar to or even worse than the 1930's, although a recovery would eventually occur.

If outcome #1 were to happen, it would likely be due to either a large number of States and its citizens formenting something along the lines of a Tax Revolt in response to a sudden, massive tax increase by the Federal Government, or a successful secessionist movement by a group of Red or Blue states with the Federal Gov't. being so weakened it would be unable or unwilling to resist (unlike 1861.) Another possibility would be what I would call "reverse secession", where several of the most dysfunctional States (those with the largest Dependent class) would be kicked out of the Union and form their own country or countries.

Either way I think in the end you would see four or five new countries form, all with their own Constitutions, Militia, and currency. Some might even go back to the gold standard, if they could seize or share the substantial reserves we still have at Ft. Knox and elsewhere. Geographically we could see a (by then) mostly Hispanic country in the Southwest of former Blue states, (Atzlan?) another one in the Northwest made up of mostly Blue states, a large country of Red states covering the Inter mountain West and Great Plains, one or two countries of Blue states from the Upper Midwest to New England, and yes, the South would rise again as a group of Red states. Texas would be a key player, it could go one of three ways, West, South, or inter mountain/Plains.

If outcome #2 were to happen, if you are alive then you may want to emigrate. The catalyst would be the same as with #1, but this time the Federal Gov't. would put up a successful crackdown, using military force where needed. It would likely result in a despotic regime with near dictatorial power, a suspension of the Constitution, and the near total abolishment of State governments. It would be like living in Tibet under Mainland China's rule as it is now. As I said above, it would still call itself the U.S.A., but strictly in name only. It would likely have some support from a portion of the Red or Blue states, with most of the oppression focused at its opposite color. If this seems far fetched just take note of how much more power the Federal Gov't. acquired after the Civil War compared to before. A second round as described above would again give the Federal Gov't. more power, to the point you might as well call it an Empire.

Outcome #3 is the nightmare of the NAU conspiracy theorists come true. It may come about after an economic or political crisis where it will be sold (falsely) as a way of diluting the costs onto another layer of government. If the crisis were worldwide, it also could occur in conjunction with the E.U. into a first attempt at World Government. Either way, the U.S. Federal Gov't. would still exist, but with slightly less power. It would mainly mean another increase in your taxes going to a new but unaccountable and non-elected government. However, it would be the darling of the Dependent Class, which at this point would be a majority in the USA.

The theory behind this outcome happening is that for decades now we've seen America become more and more a country that doesn't make things but manages things! Right now, in 2008, there are more Government workers than in manufacturing, and the gap just keeps growing. The Government's percentage of the total GDP is about 20% and growing. Every time there is a crisis, we get another increase in Government's size. A good example is the creation of the Dept. of Homeland Security after 9/11. In the end, this outcome wouldn't be as despotic as outcome #2 above, but it would be best described as a velvet Dictatorship of Rules and Regulations. It would be the choice outcome for the Liberal Multicultural Elites.

Outcome #4 would be the most optimistic and preferred one. It would likely happen with a start similar to the timeline in outcome #1, except that instead of several smaller new permanent countries forming, at some point shortly after the initial Federal Gov't. failure, and a recovery after a Depression, a new Constitutional Convention is held to re-start a new Federal Gov't. with extremely limited powers, similar to as it was in 1789. It must be noted that this could only occur if the Dependent Class were reduced to a smaller minority than it is now, and more importantly, after an across the board rejection of modern Liberal Multiculturalism, and a return to more traditional cultural norms nationwide.

Some concluding thoughts:

It will be possible to have one of the new smaller permanent countries from outcome #1, (almost certainly a group of Red staters), also make the same choice to reject Liberal Multiculturalism. Again, its Dependent class size would have to be greatly reduced. The risk here is if a nearby former Blue State country still has a large Dependent class and still are run by Liberal Multiculturalists, and is lacking in raw materials, a Chittum-esque Civil War II could break out. This is why I believe the only real positive outcome would be #4.

There will be a period of severe civil unrest and 1960's era rioting during the time of the collapse and economic Depression, but it will end after a few years as any of the four outcomes becomes established.

It is assumed that the mass 3rd World Immigration we have now will continue up until the crisis point that triggers any of the four outcomes, but will then end, either by legislation or by the fact that things will be so bad no immigrants will bother coming. In outcome #3, however, it will resume and continue until overpopulation concerns likely ends it by mid-century (40-50 years out).


Vanishing American said...

AndyK - very interesting pieces, both this one and the earlier post. This kind of speculation is something that I've given some thought to, although you have been much more specific than I have been able to be.
Good stuff.

AndyK said...

VA - Thanks. I hope to be able to reference some rare MSM columns about this subject in the future. I'm still Google searching for them...
The best known underground book on this subject is Thomas Chittum's Civil War II, but I don't agree with it very much. I don't think it could ever get that bloody.

AndyK said...

Zeke said...
Option #5: We turn into Mexico.

The class stratification increases, crime becomes rampant. Social services break down for the lumpen, the middle class is stressed to the extreme but hangs on in some diminished form, the rich become more isoltated and protected.

Cities like New York cease to function as they have for the last 150 years and revert to something more rude and angry. Think Mexico city. Visit LA and observe the general degredation of standards: farm animals in the city, no-code shops proliferating in hispanic neighborhoods, control of certain zones by street gangs with the police only occassional visitors, widespread selling "off the books", increasing illiteracy, undocumented status widespread, police ineffective at petty crime due to prevelence and PC police policies, etc.

In a word: mexifornication of the USA.

November 19, 2008 2:37 PM

AndyK said...

Zeke - I would file this under outcome #3a, the most likely result under a NAU. Managing Diversity requires a Bureaucratic Class, and the greater the diversity (a.k.a. conflict & tribalism) the larger the bureauracy will need to be to manage it.

The other three outcomes would tend to leave the problem more concentrated in the Southwest, I believe.